(Reporting party / Author: Western securities, Li Yanli)
What is the virtual person / virtual idol?
Virtual Human produces virtual images with appearance and behavioral modes by modeling, action capture, or AI, making a virtual image of appearance and behavioral modes, and is presented by display devices. The value created by the virtual man is mainly to break the physical space limit and provide more immersion, participation and interaction.
Virtual people have a variety of classification: the first kind of technical classification, the virtual person can be divided into an algorithm drive type (AI real-time or pinching, etc.) and live-driven type (action capture); second Visual dimensions are classified, the virtual people can be divided into 2D type and 3D type; the third kind is classified according to the structural composition, the virtual person can be divided into digital type (online viewing) and hologram (the user is on the spot); the fourth kind Business model classification, the virtual person can be divided into IP classes (Kol type, song and dance, brand type, entertainment company’s idol, star-divided) and non-IP class (function, academic and identity).
The word of virtual idol was born in Japan in the 1980s, and early biased towards secondary yuan, mainly refers to virtual song Ji, such as the future, and the virtual idol group A-Soul, which is launched by Lehua Entertainment. With the technical iteration, future virtual idols are closer to the concept of digital people. The history of virtual idol is as follows:
Virtual idols can be traced back to Japan, and the virtual idol production technology during this period is mainly drawn. Representative virtual pictures are: Japanese Virtual Song Ji Lin Mingmei and British Virtual Actor Max Headroom.
In the early days of the 21st century: Virtual idol step into the film and television entertainment industry, enter the exploration period
In the early days of the 21st century, with CG technology, action facial capture technology gradually replaced traditional hand-painted, virtual Idol is further developed. The representative virtual idol of this period is: the future, Luo Tianyi, \”Reference to the Rings\” 咕咕 and \”the rise of the ball\” Caesar and so on. Due to the CG technology during this period, the action facial capture technology is not mature enough, the form is relatively rough, and the size of the virtual idol market is small, and it has not been widely accepted by the public.
2016-2019 (primary stage): Technical breakthrough, virtual idol application is further strengthened
With artificial intelligence, modeling, rendering and action facial capture and other technologies Development, the application of virtual idols is further strengthened. Driven virtual idols in the middle of the live broadcast, open the new form of virtual anchor goods, then a large number of virtual anchors (VTUBEr) appears. Bilibili \”Virtualization Plan\” UP primary Xiao and Xiao Tao have also become representative virtual idols during this period. Companies such as Bilibili, Sogou, Baidu and Bkizuna Ai have layout the virtual people.
Since now (growth period): Capital increases the layout, the industry’s rapid development
Since 2020, with the capital increase the layout, the technology is increasingly mature, the application model of virtual idols Fine, intelligent and diverse development trends. For example: Virtual Net Red Kol, Star Framed Virtual Idol, Virtual Brand Spokesperson and Movie Virtual Idol. Virtual Net Red KOL and fashion, beauty and other brand collaboration has caused attention to the majority of the attention, producing better business value, such as Brazil – Spanish mixed-raceful girl Miquela Sousa, China’s Ayayi and taings. The virtual brand spokesperson promotes the brand, such as: KFC’s Sunders colonel and flower Sizi’s virtual brand spokesperson. The development of movie virtual idol promotes the development of the film and television industry, such as the barefelt ghost, black armor samurai and red armor in the \”assassination novelist\”. With the increase in the heat of Yuancai, the head Internet company takes a virtual person as a cleavage point, for example, example: Tencent, Ali, byte beating, small red book, hanging and NetEase.
The technical application of the virtual person involves two processes: making virtual people and users using virtual people. The production of virtual people is divided into two steps. The first step is to make a static virtual person, and the second step is to let the virtual person live. Making static virtual people involves modeling and rendering techniques, making it two ways to make virtual people, one is to create a live-driven virtual person through action facial capture technology; the other is through Ai technology, speech synthesis technology And CG technology, production algorithm drive type virtual person. Finally, in order to allow users to obtain stronger immersion, participation and interaction, XR / VR / AR and holographic imaging techniques should be used for users’ use links.
How is the virtual human market space and competition?
China’s virtual human / virtual idol is in growth period, and the market is maintained rapidly. As virtual people are increasingly applied to various scenarios in life, while people have gradually began to accept virtual people based on people’s curiosity of new tide, the virtual human / virtual idol industry is expected to develop rapidly. According to the Medical Consultation, 2020 China’s virtual idol core market is 3.46 billion yuan, with an increase of 69.3%. The predetermined 2021-2023 China’s virtual occasional image nucleus market regulation is 62.2 / 120.8 / 20.2 billion yuan, the growth rate is 79.6% / 94.3% / 69.8% respectively. 2020 Chinese idol drive market rules4.56 billion yuan, the growth rate is 70.3%. It is expected that China’s idol drive market size is 1074.9 / 1866.1 / 33.347 billion yuan, and the growth rate is 66.5% / 73.6% / 78.7% respectively.
The base layer is the tool layer, the hardware and hardware is the cornerstone developed by the virtual human. For example: 3D display devices such as VR / Ar bring immersion and real feeling, modeling software, modeling software, can model the human body of the virtual digital person. The basic layer representative enterprises include Meta, Shadow Technology, Epson, Yingda, Unity and Epic Gmaes.
The platform layer is a provider of a virtual human solution. Platform layers use techniques such as modeling, rendering, action capture, let the virtual people live, well-known enterprises have Vicon, Tencent, Baidu, Sogou, Shang Tang Technology, Shenglu Technology and Boardi, etc.
The application layer adds \”soul\” to the virtual person, creates and operates virtual people, and finally applied to a variety of scenes. The application layer leading enterprises have blue cursors, mango super-media and municipal culture, etc.
The competition pattern level, the virtual industry is still in the early days of development, and there is no absolute leader. Enterprises with higher visibility in the market include Tianda Ho Ni, Zhongke Shen Zhi, Magic Technology and Job Technology.
Zhongke is deeply ai digital, VR large space application, mixed realistic shooting and real-time animation training room to provide solutions, focusing on full stack of real-time animation and virtual live broadcast technology. Sino-Science is providing multi-person spatial positioning technology, and its self-research products include virtual live broadcast systems, optical animation systems and virtual imaging systems. The application scenarios of these technologies include virtual live broadcast, virtual idol, mixed realistic shot, large space VR experience, animation training room and virtual studi. The company provides services for leading companies such as one i 和 和, silent sauce and other leaders.
Magic Technology focuses on the AI \u200b\u200bdriver engine to create a virtual world. The company launched a full stack-ended AI performance animation solution, and through its own research and development of AI performance animation technology, ultra-realistic role intelligent modeling and binding technology, intelligent animation and speech synthesis technology, intelligent interaction, in virtual world Content production, virtual IP creation, and virtual smart assistant fields have launched a wide range of layouts, which have successfully created virtual network red ling, virtual human ADA, etc.
Buildings focus on digital content culture. The company’s employees reached 100 people, and formed three departments, including the pre-planning department, post-mid-range (editing, three-dimensional, synthetic sectors) and executive departments, including the number of content creation teams in the MTH, two-thirds of the company, The first virtual IP of the universe of the whole network – Liu Ningxi is the company. (Report Source: Future Wishedu)
In addition to entrepreneurial, giants also actively layout in virtual people, such as Alida Termat and Netease.
Alida Tuard has a machine intelligent laboratory (visual laboratory, language technology laboratory), data calculation laboratory (intelligent computing laboratory) and XR laboratory, etc., and continues to pay attention to VR, AR, XR Waiting for hardware platform technology, moving into the Yuancosian. Among them, the main research direction of the XR laboratory is three-dimensional modeling, high realistic rendering, natural human machine interaction, large scene map and positioning and robot grab. Application level, the industrial-grade naked eye 3D technology that Alida Temple is developing, using landing to the virtual human industry chain, you can realize real-time synchronization of real-time interming between the virtual anchor line, so that the feedback of the virtual anchor is more timely and authentic, This enhances the interaction effect. The Alifecta Court has also been artificial intelligence technology. This technology can realize thousands of interactions in thousands. When applied to the virtual human industry chain, you can realize the same virtual person to conduct a pair of artificial intelligence for different people. Interact.
Netease’s Netease and Netease Fuxi laboratory have brought to virtual people, and NetEase passed investment in other companies to add code layout virtual human fields. Netease Zhiqi provides coverage of audio and video real-time transmission, speech recognition / synthesis and peopleFace ratio and other technologies and is applied to games, online meetings, scenes, social, virtual concerts, and children’s education, etc. NetEase Fuku Lab launched a virtual human SDK \”lack\” and immersive activity system \”Yao Tai\”. According to the game grape, NetEase has 5 investments in virtual human-related industries in 2020, and investment companies include Xiaobing, IMVU, Ministry Culture and Shiyu, the main projects respectively \”Little Ice\”, VR Social Game \”Imvu\”, Virtualist animation and virtual human technicians.
Overseas giants, British Weida launched three virtual people at the GTC 2021 conference, namely \”mini toy version of Huang Renxun\” Toy-Me, \”Eggs Hill\” image virtual person and virtual in conference software people. Toy-Me can answer questions about weather changes, astronomy, and biological protein.
EPIC Games is more simplified and easier to make a high-fidelity numeria (Metahuman) with a unreal engine. MetaHuman Creator (MHC) is an application for creating and designing virtual people. Unlike general pinch tools, it can skip the data acquisition steps that the general program needs to be required, directly use the hair style and facials in the material library. Waiting for the virtual person, and the preset data of the material library is from a real and reasonable face, so MHC can simplify the process of creating a virtual person and guarantee quality. MHC uses a cloud hosting service, so at the level of high-resolution and rendering, the demand for computer capabilities and storage is not high, which is conducive to mitigation of creators to hardware.
Third, the business model of the virtual person?
From the application level, the virtual people can be applied to the fields of film, media, games, finance, literature, education, medical treatment, and retail, including virtual grunge, virtual concert, virtual spokesperson for brand promotion, Virtual idol, film and television shooting, starry virtual idol, live broadcast, virtual conference, virtual exhibition, company main business assist, academic research and virtual tour guides.
Vantage’s specific transients have multiple:
Live rewards or belt: Virtual anchor through live broadcast, gaining live band payment and virtual gift reward, business value gradually Highlight, the advantage of virtual anchors is that 24 hours continue to live. Most virtual anchors are still unprofitable, but the live reward rewards of head virtual anchors have been compared to the heads of the real people. At the 12th anniversary of the B station, CEO Chen Rui mentioned that more than 32,000 virtual anchors broadcast in the B station in the past year, an increase of 40% year-on-year, and virtual ahead has become B-station live broadcast.The fastest growing range. According to Morning Finance, as of August 18, 2021, the B station relatively related 3472 virtual anchors of the attention, 1827 people received 0 yuan, most of the virtual anchors were still unprofitable. But the live broadcast of the head virtual anchor revenue can reach the live broadcast of the head. According to Bailian Technology Data, the number of virtual anchors of B stations has increased significantly since March 2020, and the reward income increased by 183%. On December 23, 202, nearly seven days B station game anchor strength list (according to the active audience, pay attention to subscription and gift value, etc.) TOP50, there are 11 virtual anchors to springs, Apu is very cute and charitable today. What to eat into TOP10, the benefits gifts are 9.647 million, respectively, respectively.
The number of fans of the head virtual anchor can reach the head live anchor. The two virtual people of Filieo Day and Hanser were selected for the B station 2020. The top 100 UP owners were located in 51 and 57. B Station In August 2021, the number of virtual anchor figs has a number of virtual anchor fans more than 10,000. From the fans, it can reach a hundred large UP main fans. In May 2020, the virtual idol Luo Tian took a cross-border live band, and the highest number of people visited by 2.7 million, nearly 2 million people renaissed interaction. According to titanium media, Luo Tian is about 900,000 in Taobao’s pit service, exceeding the highest quotation of the highest quotation in the head anchor (about 600,000 in the haunct of the jam). Virtual Women’s A-Soul Captain Bella’s single \”Shiny Dancer\” is less than 24 hours on the B station, gain 25.8W play, 1.5W review, and board the B station music hot list fifth.
Commercial Performance: Virtual idols can be obtained by virtual concerts and pruning music singles. The virtual concert is divided into online and offline, offline the advertising master sponsorship and selling tickets, online can be charged through online live broadcast and live reward fees. For example: Japanese Balus launched the Galaxy Alice and Hololive head virtual idols are empty in a virtual concert.
Brand endorsement: Brand virtual endorsement can broaden the company’s market by promotional brands. The star is different to obtain IP authorization fees and product endorsement fees. Virtual Net Red KOL can be collapsed by collaborating with skin care, beauty and fashion companies, such as Ayayi and Guerlain, and LV.
Exammented film and television variety: Virtual people can participate in the recordings of variety show, and play movies and television works,Add colors to programs and film and television. At present, there are many applications in variety, such as: the first Digital Singer in the \”2060\” in China in China, \”2060\”, \”Hally\” in the red armor, Mango Super Media Virtual host Xiaohe and Central Baidu Virtual Moderator in the \”Struggling of\” Struggles in Youth – 2011 May 4th Youth Festival Special Program \”.
Fourth, the virtual person is in the film content industry?
Traditional film and television content production industry chain is over-reliable, one is higher, the second is that the individual is not good to control, will turn the car; the third is once famous, it is easy to get out of the company to set up a company.
In terms of cost, according to the \”Notice on Further Strengthening TV Drama Network Drama Creation Production Management\” on February 20, 2020, each TV drama network drama is not allowed. More than 40% of the total production cost, which must not exceed 70% of the total paid. According to the proposal of the China TV Services Industry Association, my country’s TV series / network dramatic cost should be controlled within 4 million yuan per set. With this, the actor cost of the head episode is as high as 1.6 million / set, and the total cost of the 40 episodes of the episode reached 64 million. It is not a small burden on the content producer and the procurement of the platform.
The star will cause huge losses to the company. The star rollover has a negative impact on the image of the endorsement brand, and the film and television drama and variety of film and television and variety will not be released or need to be changed. For example, the investor costs of 500 billion Downtian film and television \”win the world\” is thoroughly banned by Gao Yunxiang and Fan Bingbing; the total investment is as high as 3 billion \”junior line\” is released by Wu Yifan; \”Emerald Lovers\” \”And\” New Ghost Story \”is banned by Zheng Shuang.
After the star is famous, it is often detached from the cultivation of their own company and established a studio. For example, Yang Mi, Zhao Liying, Lu Han and Zhang Yixing have been famous after a famous door.
The virtual person does not have the above problems, and the virtual idols have the following advantages over the cultivation of live idols: high plasticity. It is not necessary to go to \”person vary from person to person\” according to personal conditions to create people and image according to the target positioning and user preferences. Can be manipulated and determined. Virtual idols are based on platforms and teams, and there is no risk of personal morality and the risk of being separated from the platform. Unlimited risk. In theory, you can reply unlimited, and multiple business activities are available.
Camdi Anime For the operation of the IP, IP grows, and precipitated as the assets of the platform level. We believe that future development or visibility of the virtual personTest the world with IP operation as the core of Disney. According to Statista, it is expected that in the top ten most profitable IPs in the world in 2021, there are 5 IPs from Disney, including the expected earnings of 80.3 billion dollars, $ 8.03 billion, $ 46.4 billion Disney Princess and 687. Billion ‘s Planet Wars, and a $ 35.3 billion in the Winar Universe. The IP has given story and connotation, and has been continuously developed and derived through movies, games, theme parks, and Culture products, so that the IP has a longer vitality, long-lasting precipitation is platform assets, contributes.
1) Operation. The virtual person is basically no technical obstacles, and the obstacle is \”cultured\”, establishing \”popularity\”, to \”transition\” operation processes. Take the operation of the Virtual Man Liu Ningxi as an example. Liu Ningxi released the first video in the shake on October 31, 2021, with this, with this, the net is more than 3 million, and the number of powder figures exceeded 2.3 million after three days. . Liu Neixi is the first metastacious IP of the whole network, and its operations are embodied in the combination of virtual people and related hot topics.
2) Breakdown. Before the virtual idol, the second yuan is more popular, and the future needs to expand the three yuan. We see that Liu Niexi has made the concept of virtual people, and the image is not different, and the ordinary user acceptance is high. (Report Source: Future Wishedu)
For people to truly accept virtual people into real life, the image of the virtual person must be accepted by people. Therefore, it should be more exciting, expressive, emblem, and movement of the virtual person more accurately, expressions, emblem, and movements, should therefore be improved by lifting action facial capture technology, graphic rendering technology, modeling, speech synthesis techniques, AI technology and CG technology.
The virtual person’s people setup is one of the main reasons for people to accept their, so the settings and operations of the virtual human IP should have characteristics, and love it. For example, virtual human origin, character, growth environment, educational background, work background, etc. Take the B station virtual anchor Tao as an example, the shape of the 15-year-old purple double horsesail powder, wearing a black and white slave, and there are many character, which will switch the character with the fan speed on the head. For example, the top fan is completely not turned, and it is natural to stay; if the top wind fan low speed rotation, it is smart; if the head fan is high speed, the belly black character.
In addition to the production and operation of the virtual person, the wide application of the virtual person will make people easier to accept the virtual person. Now that the virtual person should be in the initial stage, people have just started a preliminary understanding of the virtual person. With the broader application of virtual people, Net Red Kol, Film and television works, brand spokespersons, online meetings and company business, etc. For example: there is a living atmosphere – Xiao Yi.
Domestic secondary virtual idol commercial performance has certain successful experience, according to titanium media, virtual idol single production costs are around 2 million yuan, a concert covering 10 performances, including editing Song, high-tech modeling, image design, action capture, stage plan formulation, CG production, etc., cost is 20 million yuan. Taking Luo Tian as an example, in June 2017, a concert was held in Mercedes-Benz Center in Mercedes, according to the Chairman of Tianja Ho, \”The company spent more than 2,000 million talents completed the performance\”. From the perspective of a change, Luotian is based on the income of the concert, and the entry and surrounding derivatives are obtained. The sponsorship income of the 2017 concert is expected to cover the cost of performance, with a ticket sales of about 7,000, and 500 yuan / piece according to the flat, with a ticket income of about 3.5 million yuan. Further, the concert has a strong brand effect, strengthens Luo Tianyi IP to create, so that the virtual idol enters the three yuan debut, the significance of its marketing is greater than the profit.
Due to the mature operation mode and the realization of the industry chain, the cost of cultivating the real person idol is relatively low. As an example, SM is one of the most excellent companies in the world idol training. According to 36, it has invested approximately 1 million yuan / person throughout the training. The first is the selection stage, through the drape of the weekend draft, SM Youth Selection Assembly, etc., Xi-Zhen Digital, Mao Yi, etc., this phase passes the number of adolescents, and this phase passes nearly 1: 800.
After entering the training phase, the exercise is basically required for 3-10 years of training, and the end is eliminated in the form of surveillance, monthly test. This phase has a 50% elimination rate. At the stage, the profit model is very mature, from the C-terminal direct profit single, album, concert, member value added, peripheral derivation, from B-terminal profitable TV variety, performance activities, business operations, etc.
Although the ROI of the virtual idol in the short term is lower than the real idol, with the advancement of the technology and the scale effect, and the era of the Yuancosian The virtual person just needs, the virtual idol industry is large, the boundaries between the two will be more vague, the real idol will create their own virtual image, virtual idols will make them more \”real people\”. For example, the end of the 2020, the \”A-Soul\”, which is different from the five profiles, and the number of whole net powder has exceeded three million in short short. According to the data of the B station, the playback volume of the music works released by A-Soul can reach more than 500,000. With the virtual idol service, Lepa Entertainment ushered in the investment of byte beating.
(This article is for reference only, does not mean any of our investment recommendations. For information on the use of information, please refer to the original text.)
Collection Source: [ Future wiskin]. Future wiskin – official website