Edited | Yu Bin
Production | Chaumnar \”[in the chaumnar\”
The epidemic at the end of 2019 is unfair, 2020 Zhang Kunhong’s hot, 2021 white wine makes people彷徨, is you ready for 2022?
Why is the capital market like white wine?
The current Chinese market has faith in liquor and medical treatment. Everyone believes that the fall is temporary, there will always be a day. This is not just the speech of medical and consumer researchers, but many of the retail and fund managers think so. Where is the magic of medical and liquor? Give investors so much confidence? (Mainly analyzing liquor)
The most intuitive reason, everyone earned money in liquor and medical treatment. White wine and medical treatment have risen the best and retracence in the past 10 years. When you make money in a track, you will feel that you know this track, and then I will think that he will lead you money.
So the problem is transformed into why liquor and medical stocks can rise big? And sustainability is so long? (Mainly analyzed)
First, downstream demand stability. China’s drink is a historical culture. Culture is long and far-reaching. No matter how you are young, you have a little bit of alcohol. If you have a small age, you will feel that wine is good. Drinking scenes in switching, drinking people are changing, before the politicians, now is business, turning point is the 2012 policy (public officials receiving forbidden drinking). With the raising of everyone, there is only one body, but there is a lot of identity, so people are healthy, but they have to go to the wine field. As the condition is better and the improvement of work pressure, the demand for drinking wine is gradually enhanced. The boom of high-end wine is also coming.
Second, the stability of the competition pattern is again. The price of high-end wine and its attributes can be listed as luxury goods, replicated LV, Dior and other luxury goods, each luxury has its own historical story. The irreplaceability of the brand is the story of its cultural, the content of the culture comes from the story of the goods. This product is a leader / British royal family likes. Because the luxury goods itself, the representative is a high-level identity, who is unique, and the development is more stable. History is not repeated, so the high-end wine is then only a few. The pattern is a strategic decision for historical consolidation in history and later.
A product attributes that again, high gross profit and high purity. Moutai’s gross profit margin is 90-92%, and the net interest rate is about 50%. Throughout the A-share market, there are not many companies with this financial indicators, and can also maintain around 10-30% per year, and few less.
Finally, the determinism of performance growth rate. The above is said, liquor is a luxury property, the higher the price, the more scarce, the more sought after luxury goods.Therefore, performance growth is mainly based on the price ratio, because Maotai’s process, leads to the expansion of Maotai for at least 5 years, and the high-end of Maotai does not have a clear expansion plan. Because of the limited number, the price has risen by 10-20%, which has brought stable performance growth. More and more people who drink high-end wine, but the total amount of wine has no way, so the luxury attribute of high-end wine is stable, and the logic of price increase is consolidated, which is a sound cycle.
Medicine and liquor are slightly similar, which are high -brus profit and high purity, and people’s medical needs are also increasing year by year. It is only the medical high -brus profit and high purity from channels and patents, thus slightly different.
White wine competition pattern change
The competition pattern is basically a slight change in 10 years. Let’s talk about why it will change.
In 1949 – In 1988, Shanxi Wine was a boss of wine. First, because the crafts of the alcohol are simpler than the Wuliang and Moutai, 2 catties can make 1 pound of wine, the product is scarce, and the product is large, the amount of products is more easily successful. Second, the alcohol was got in Panama Wine, which was the international recognition, and the accused wine in 1949-1988 had only Maotai and Shanxi. Shanxi Wei’s wine is also very large, and is well known by everyone, the wisdom of Jinshang is also important, and finally, Shanxi Wei wine confirms the status of the boss.
Shanxi Wine Declaration and 1988, it allows white wine to rise. The strategy of Shanxi Wine has turned into a small profit of the slogan to win, but Maotai and Wuliang Liquid change to high-end wine that is worth winning. The strategy is different, leading to Shanxi alcohol to lose high-end markets and high-end impression in people’s hearts. The seller’s market to the buyer market switch, the neglected of customer needs is also a mistake in Shanxi.
Wuliangye gradually sat up in 2005. The reason is actually very intriguing. First of all, the sales method of Wuliangye is the way of big traders, and the big business dealers are co-ordinated, layered, and finally spread the national channel. At that time, people’s media were mainly TV, Wuliangye also put on TV commercials, deepening the brand concept. If the deepening brand concept is very difficult, because everyone’s information medium is too much, short video, long video, WeChat, etc., a national brand has become more difficult, of course, this is after.
Wuliangye is in order to implement the market share, the low-end wine of Wuliangye is produced, and then the five grain liquids are found. This behavior seriously hurts the main brand, which buried a film for the Maotai. Second, the system of large vendors will reduce the company’s sensitivity to the industry, reduce the company’s bargaining capacity, and reduce the company’s anti-cycle adjustment energy, and deal with the elasticity of the crisis.
In 2012, the five grain liquids that fail to the industry, when the policy changes, public funds are prohibited from drinking alcohol, and they choose to cut prices, and their luxury goods have been cut, and brand power is big.The brand of brand, plus past mistakes, revenue was transcended by Maotai.
Maotai is \”king\” in 2012, why can you succeed?
Maotai has accumulated since 2000. Around 2000, the Chinese economy has turmoil, and the number of Maotai is only 11th. Moutai Chairman established the \”Damaged Squad\”, with people to sell wine, sincere and resolute, and impatched many dealers.
The promotion of branding is large. It is also the story of the Panama Wine. The Red Army Siuru Red Solver (Maotai Town is close to the Chi Shuihe and the Red Army have a uncomfortable), as well as the founding of the founding of the country (in fact, Guizhou is still not liberated), but after a meal, everyone believes Maotai is a national wine, I feel that it is reflected in the brand of Maotai.
When there is fluctuations in the market in 2012, they actively switched the wine scene to the business, and resolutely not cut the price to maintain brand adjustment. The policy is very correct. As wine demand gradually improves, the high-end wine market quickly recovers. Maotai is more stable than the story of Wuliang, the ancient customer group of Wuliangye is mainly Huang Tingjian and other literati, and the high-end story is also awkward. The story of Maotai is also more purchased, and Maotai is in the gene. Can the liquor industry still invest?
This should look at investors’ preferences, some investors are risky preferences (just like adventure), more do not recommend investing in liquor, because the liquor is really stable, compared to some small colet stocks or Growth shares.
If the investor is a risk disgust (more payment of investment experience), Moutai is a very good choice. Maotai’s market value of 2.44 trillion (November 26), the high market value of the future liquor may have no way to double the market value of today, can only be slow and solid growth, the investment experience is nothing big The callback, after all, has been called to the right position, consumption lead stocks 30-40 times PE, belong to a reasonable range. In the future, it is assumed that the PE is constant, then whenever the performance is growing, the stock price is the same as the performance growth, and the investors earn money is the money growing.
White wine also has investment value. In fact, the front has passed, first, high gross profit, high purity, and stability growth is very scarce, in the future economy In the future, the rapid slowdown will be further reflected. Second, the pattern is determined by historical stories, and China has a story and has already told the story. The competitive pattern is destined to be stable, compared to the technology industry, this stability is very difficult. Finally, China’s luxury goods are really very true. This is determined by our social system and past ideology evolution, so the scarce is further highlighted.
In addition, there is a part of the growth of wine from nationalization. For example, Shanxi Wine is mainly in Shanxi, and the nationalization has been delayed from some food safety issues.Nowadays, now, the development of Shanxi wine, therefore, the results of the performance incremental market brought about by the nationalization, because of its future high growth rate, Shanxi Wine is liked by many institutions (everyone can check the Shanxi wine position of the agency) .
White wine still has a chance? The answer is yes. The fundamental surface itself is not big, but in 2021 in the economy, the stability is very insignificant. The market likes the fast recovery of high-growth stocks after the epidemic. At this time, the chip of liquor is diverted, the market style transformation Market liquidity, which affects the stock price. This is one of the reasons why 2021 white wine shares decline.
But don’t forget that the liquor industry has undergone hundreds of years of wind and rain, brand power is constantly reshaping, Maotai as a luxury, has also had the properties of the cycle, when the economic is not too arrival, High-end liquor stocks of \”Crossing Period\” may also be held again.
The style and preferences of investment are different, and the requirements for yields and stability are different, \”the honey, B. If you like white wine, you will continue to like it. If you don’t like wine stocks, there are 10,000 reasons. Investment is not right, but it needs to be inclusive and reflect. The view of the article comes from \”in seeing columns\”, if there is different ideas, you can also comment on message discussions.
(Risk Tips + Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment suggestions, if investment losses, investors are at your own risk)